FC Volendam 2-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, PSV Eindhoven have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for FC Volendam.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and PSV Eindhoven 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 71% | PSV Eindhoven 84%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.02 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.853 / defence 0.967 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.421 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.452. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 FC Volendam games / 56 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 60%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | PSV Eindhoven 1.67. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Volendam 1.02 / PSV Eindhoven 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.853 / def 0.967 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.421 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.00
PSV Eindhoven xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 19% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 5W.
What form are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
19%
5.32
21%
4.70
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.02
2.00
PSV Eindhoven xG
5.32
19%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
14%
7.36
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
3%
39.13
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.00 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 30W 10D 16L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 44W 6D 6L from 56 games, 2.46 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.07 PPG from 28 outings (18W 4D 6L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 23W 1D 4L from 28 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.02 scored and 1.16 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 68%.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 30W 10D 16L in their last 56 games (1.79 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 44W 6D 6L in their last 56 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.07 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
5
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 68%, PSV Eindhoven at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Volendam and 82% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC Volendam's games and 71% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Volendam's matches and 82% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.02 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.00 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.42 / defence 0.74, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 60%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, PSV Eindhoven 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.79. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.79 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.