FC Volendam 0-5 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host PEC Zwolle at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 5W 1D 4L at Kras Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 0.80 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and PEC Zwolle 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 70% | PEC Zwolle 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.05 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.954 / defence 1.164 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.883 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.445. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 FC Volendam games / 13 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 49% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 3.85. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 49% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Volendam 2.05 / PEC Zwolle 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.954 / def 1.164 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.883 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PEC Zwolle xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
FC Volendam 0 - 5 PEC Zwolle.
Where is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle part of?
FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 49% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.95x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.01
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.54
1.49
PEC Zwolle xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
3%
29.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.49 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 8D 27L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.85 PPG from 47 outings (27W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Volendam's home form reads 11W 2D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.70 points per game from 23 outings (12W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.11 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 27L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 27W 6D 14L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.52 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.70 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when PEC Zwolle won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 70%, PEC Zwolle at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 74% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 65% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 74% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 0-5 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat FC Volendam 0-5 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.05 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.49 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 2.1 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 49% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 26%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, PEC Zwolle 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.