FC Volendam 3-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 6W 1D 3L at Kras Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Excelsior are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for Excelsior and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 3–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Excelsior 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 69% | Excelsior 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.41 xG and Excelsior 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.898 / defence 1.071 | Excelsior attack 1.022 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.341. Data: 42 FC Volendam games / 43 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 33% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Excelsior 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Volendam 70% | Excelsior 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 33% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 1.41 / Excelsior 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.898 / def 1.071 | Excelsior attack 1.022 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Excelsior xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Excelsior kick off?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
FC Volendam 3 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is FC Volendam vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Excelsior part of?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 33% chance of winning, Excelsior a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Excelsior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.90) and Excelsior's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.02x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
33%
3.00
31%
3.25
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.88
1.47
Excelsior xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.47 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 42 games, going 11W 7D 24L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.00 PPG from 42 outings (11W 9D 22L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.00 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 10W 2D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 0.50 points per game from 20 outings (2W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.10 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 7D 24L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Excelsior away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.60 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
3
Draws
5
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Excelsior have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 65%, Excelsior 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 60% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 40% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 60% of Excelsior's.
Do FC Volendam and Excelsior tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Excelsior 3-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.41 xG and Excelsior 1.47 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Excelsior attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 33% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 36%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Excelsior 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 0.95 PPG, Excelsior 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.