FC Volendam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as FC Volendam welcome AZ Alkmaar to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, AZ Alkmaar in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 70% and AZ Alkmaar 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | AZ Alkmaar 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.12 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.943 / defence 1.503 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.398 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.250. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — the away xG of 2.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 FC Volendam games / 53 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 13% | Draw 19% | AZ Alkmaar 68%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 7.69 | Draw 5.26 | AZ Alkmaar 1.47. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | AZ Alkmaar 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 13% | Draw 19% | AZ Alkmaar 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Volendam 1.12 / AZ Alkmaar 2.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.943 / def 1.503 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.398 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
64%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
FC Volendam 1 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 13% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.94) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 2.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.1%), 1-3 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
13%
7.91
19%
5.18
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.75
2.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
7.91
13%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
7%
13.83
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
1%
109.35
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.63 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 25W 16D 16L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 32W 11D 14L from 57 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.60 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (16W 3D 9L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 15W 4D 9L from 28 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.02 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 74%.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 25W 16D 16L in their last 57 games (1.60 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 11D 14L in their last 57 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.82 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when AZ Alkmaar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
2
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 75%, AZ Alkmaar at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC Volendam and 75% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 75% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC Volendam's matches and 75% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 1-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.12 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.63 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.94 / defence 1.50 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.40 / defence 0.82, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 13% | Draw 19% | AZ Alkmaar 68%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, AZ Alkmaar 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.60 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.