Excelsior 5-0 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Utrecht (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior face Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Excelsior welcome Utrecht to Stadion Woudestein. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Woudestein this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Utrecht — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Utrecht away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Utrecht — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Utrecht in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Utrecht have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Excelsior.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Utrecht winning.
It is worth noting that Utrecht have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Utrecht trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 58% and Utrecht 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 58% | Utrecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 0.95 xG and Utrecht 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.634 / defence 1.203 | Utrecht attack 1.152 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.271. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Excelsior games / 64 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 17% | Draw 30% | Utrecht 53%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | Utrecht 1.89. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 17% | Draw 30% | Utrecht 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Excelsior 0.95 / Utrecht 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.634 / def 1.203 | Utrecht attack 1.152 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Utrecht kick off?
Excelsior vs Utrecht kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Excelsior 5 - 0 Utrecht.
Where is Excelsior vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs Utrecht part of?
Excelsior vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 17% chance of winning, Utrecht a 53% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Excelsior and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 2 | Utrecht 3W.
What form are Excelsior and Utrecht in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Utrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.63) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
17%
5.90
30%
3.35
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.71
1.76
Utrecht xG
5.90
17%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
3%
34.38
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.76 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 27W 14D 23L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Utrecht's form line: 30W 18D 16L from 64 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.48 PPG, Utrecht on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (16W 5D 11L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 13W 12D 7L from 32 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 27W 14D 23L in their last 64 games (1.48 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 30W 18D 16L in their last 64 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Utrecht away?
Excelsior's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.66 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Excelsior won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, Utrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Excelsior 5-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 44%, Utrecht 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Excelsior) and 62% (Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Excelsior's games and 75% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Excelsior's recent games and 62% of Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Utrecht tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Utrecht 5-0 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 0.95 xG and Utrecht 1.76 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.63 / defence 1.20 against Utrecht attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 17% | Draw 30% | Utrecht 53%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 58%, Utrecht 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.48 PPG, Utrecht 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.