Excelsior 0-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Excelsior welcome PSV Eindhoven to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PSV Eindhoven stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, PSV Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, PSV Eindhoven have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Excelsior.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–3 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 56% versus PSV Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 66% | PSV Eindhoven 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.03 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.864 / defence 1.165 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.654 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.379. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.654 — the away xG of 2.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Excelsior games / 61 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 12% | Draw 17% | PSV Eindhoven 71%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 8.33 | Draw 5.88 | PSV Eindhoven 1.41. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.03 / 2.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 80% | PSV Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 12% | Draw 17% | PSV Eindhoven 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 61% | xG Excelsior 1.03 / PSV Eindhoven 2.66 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.864 / def 1.165 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.654 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.66
PSV Eindhoven xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Excelsior 0 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 12% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 71% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 3W.
What form are Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven in?
Excelsior (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.86) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.8%), 1-3 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
12%
8.58
17%
5.84
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.69
2.66
PSV Eindhoven xG
8.58
12%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
7%
14.27
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
1%
122.47
25%
3.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.66 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Excelsior have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 13W 15D 33L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 46W 9D 6L from 61 games, 2.41 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 19W 6D 5L from 30 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.80 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 15D 33L in their last 61 games (0.89 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 46W 9D 6L in their last 61 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.30 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Excelsior or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior
0
Draws
6
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 60%, PSV Eindhoven 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Excelsior and 73% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 33%; Excelsior have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Excelsior's games and 60% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Excelsior's matches and 73% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Excelsior 0-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.03 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.66 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.65 / defence 0.74, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 12% | Draw 17% | PSV Eindhoven 71%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 66%, PSV Eindhoven 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.