Excelsior 2-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Emmen meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Excelsior, 1.60 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Excelsior, 1 for Emmen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Emmen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Emmen — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 60% versus Emmen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 70% | Emmen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.38 xG and Emmen 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.983 / defence 1.472 | Emmen attack 0.718 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.446. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Excelsior games / 5 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 57% | Draw 19% | Emmen 24%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.75 | Draw 5.26 | Emmen 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.91 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 70% | Emmen 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 57% | Draw 19% | Emmen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 71% | xG Excelsior 2.38 / Emmen 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.983 / def 1.472 | Emmen attack 0.718 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Emmen xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Emmen kick off?
Excelsior vs Emmen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Emmen?
Excelsior 2 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Excelsior vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Emmen part of?
Excelsior vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 57% chance of winning, Emmen a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Excelsior and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Emmen?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Emmen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.98) and Emmen's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.72x) against Excelsior's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
57%
1.77
19%
5.18
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.91
1.53
Emmen xG
1.77
57%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
9%
10.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
2%
45.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.53 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior's recent record stands at 20W 11D 12L from 43 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 27W 6D 10L across 43 games — 2.02 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Excelsior against 2.02 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 11W 5D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.60 scored and 0.88 conceded. Excelsior's scoring rate against Emmen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Emmen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while Emmen have gone 27W 6D 10L in their last 43 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.71 PPG; Emmen away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Emmen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Emmen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Excelsior 2-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Emmen?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 62%, Emmen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 81% (Excelsior) and 38% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Emmen in 38%; Emmen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Excelsior's recent matches and 43% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Excelsior's matches and 38% of Emmen's.
Do Excelsior and Emmen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Emmen in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out Emmen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Emmen 2-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.38 xG and Emmen 1.53 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.98 / defence 1.47 against Emmen attack 0.72 / defence 1.43, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 57% | Draw 19% | Emmen 24%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 70%, Emmen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.65 PPG, Emmen 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.