Emmen 0-3 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Emmen take on Twente.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Twente at De Oude Meerdijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Emmen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Twente stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Twente's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.50 (Twente). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Emmen, 1 for Twente and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Twente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Emmen in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Twente in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 45% versus Twente 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 47% | Twente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.86 xG and Twente 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.666 / defence 0.974 | Twente attack 0.795 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.280. Emmen's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Emmen games / 64 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 29% | Draw 36% | Twente 35%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Twente 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 30% | Twente 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 29% | Draw 36% | Twente 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Emmen 0.86 / Twente 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.666 / def 0.974 | Twente attack 0.795 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Twente xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Twente kick off?
Emmen vs Twente kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Twente?
Emmen 0 - 3 Twente.
Where is Emmen vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Twente part of?
Emmen vs Twente is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 29% chance of winning, Twente a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Emmen and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Twente?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 0 | Twente 1W.
What form are Emmen and Twente in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Twente (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Twente's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.51
36%
2.77
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Emmen xG
Total xG
1.85
0.99
Twente xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.5 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Emmen and 0.99 for Twente, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 31W 14D 19L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Twente's form line: 34W 18D 12L from 64 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.67 PPG, Twente on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.97 PPG from 32 outings (18W 9D 5L).
On the road, Twente have gone 13W 9D 10L from 32 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.66 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Twente in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Twente
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Twente in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 31W 14D 19L in their last 64 games (1.67 PPG), while Twente have gone 34W 18D 12L in their last 64 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Twente away?
Emmen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.97 PPG; Twente away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Emmen or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Twente in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Emmen
0
Draws
2
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Twente?
From 2 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Twente have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Emmen 0-3 Twente.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Twente see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 41%, Twente 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Emmen) and 41% (Twente).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Twente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Emmen's recent matches and 53% of Twente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Emmen's recent games and 41% of Twente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Twente tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Twente in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Twente run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Emmen 0-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.86 xG and Twente 0.99 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emmen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Twente outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.67 / defence 0.97 against Twente attack 0.80 / defence 0.81, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 29% | Draw 36% | Twente 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Twente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 47%, Twente 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Twente's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.67 PPG, Twente 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Twente win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Twente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.