Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Waalwijk travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 2W 1D 7L at Cambuur Stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Waalwijk are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambuur, 0 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 93% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Waalwijk trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 71% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 74% | Waalwijk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.50 xG and Waalwijk 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.061 / defence 1.584 | Waalwijk attack 0.840 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.265. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Cambuur games / 31 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 34% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 100% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 34% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Cambuur 1.50 / Waalwijk 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.061 / def 1.584 | Waalwijk attack 0.840 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Waalwijk kick off?
Cambuur vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Cambuur 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Cambuur vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Waalwijk part of?
Cambuur vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 34% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cambuur and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Waalwijk in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.06) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
34%
2.91
23%
4.28
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.18
1.68
Waalwijk xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.68 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 10W 4D 17L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 7W 10D 14L from 31 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.10 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 2W 7D 6L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.10 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 10W 4D 17L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Waalwijk away?
Cambuur's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.07 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Waalwijk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cambuur
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 93%, Waalwijk at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Cambuur and 53% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 93% of Cambuur's games and 73% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Cambuur's matches and 53% of Waalwijk's.
Do Cambuur and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.50 xG and Waalwijk 1.68 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.06 / defence 1.58 against Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 34% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 42%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 74%, Waalwijk 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.10 PPG, Waalwijk 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.