Cambuur 1-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as Cambuur welcome PSV Eindhoven to Cambuur Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PSV Eindhoven stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, PSV Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cambuur, 1 for PSV Eindhoven and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 93% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 69% and PSV Eindhoven 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 72% | PSV Eindhoven 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.40 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.101 / defence 1.632 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.284 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.283. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — the away xG of 2.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Cambuur games / 29 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 18% | Draw 17% | PSV Eindhoven 65%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 5.56 | Draw 5.88 | PSV Eindhoven 1.54. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 100% | PSV Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 18% | Draw 17% | PSV Eindhoven 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 70% | xG Cambuur 1.40 / PSV Eindhoven 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.101 / def 1.632 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.284 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.69
PSV Eindhoven xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Cambuur 1 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 18% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 65% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.10x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.6%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
18%
5.53
17%
5.85
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.09
2.69
PSV Eindhoven xG
5.53
18%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
7%
14.70
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
1%
81.32
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.69 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 3D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.34 PPG from 29 outings (22W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 5W 1D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.29 points per game from 14 outings (10W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.52 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
PSV Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 10W 3D 16L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 22W 2D 5L in their last 29 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.14 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Cambuur or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when PSV Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when PSV Eindhoven 5-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 93%, PSV Eindhoven at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Cambuur and 71% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 93% of Cambuur's games and 57% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Cambuur's matches and 71% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Cambuur 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Cambuur 1-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.40 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.69 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.10 / defence 1.63 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.28 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 18% | Draw 17% | PSV Eindhoven 65%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 72%, PSV Eindhoven 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.