Cambuur 3-4 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host PEC Zwolle at Cambuur Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cambuur Stadion, Cambuur have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Cambuur have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 1, PEC Zwolle 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 71% versus PEC Zwolle 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 71% | PEC Zwolle 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.59 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.028 / defence 1.571 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.632 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.323. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Cambuur games / 21 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 44% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 31%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | PEC Zwolle 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 44% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Cambuur 1.59 / PEC Zwolle 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.028 / def 1.571 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.632 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.31
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Cambuur 3 - 4 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 44% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cambuur and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Cambuur and PEC Zwolle in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.01
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.91
1.31
PEC Zwolle xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.31 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 9W 3D 9L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 3W 4D 14L from 21 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (4W 1D 5L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.62 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 9W 3D 9L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 4D 14L in their last 21 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Cambuur's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.30 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and PEC Zwolle runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cambuur
0
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Cambuur 3-4 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 90%, PEC Zwolle at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Cambuur and 40% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Cambuur's games and 40% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Cambuur's matches and 40% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Cambuur and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat Cambuur 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Cambuur 3-4 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.59 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.31 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.03 / defence 1.57 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.63 / defence 1.37, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 44% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 31%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 71%, PEC Zwolle 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.