Cambuur 2-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face AZ Alkmaar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 4W 2D 4L at Kooi Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AZ Alkmaar have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Cambuur.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
It is worth noting that AZ Alkmaar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 69% and AZ Alkmaar 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 64% | AZ Alkmaar 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.34 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.914 / defence 1.353 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.019 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Data: 8 Cambuur games / 42 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 18% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 61%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | AZ Alkmaar 1.64. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 18% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Cambuur 1.34 / AZ Alkmaar 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.914 / def 1.353 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.019 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.46
AZ Alkmaar xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Cambuur 2 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 18% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.91) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 1-3 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
18%
5.46
21%
4.81
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.79
2.46
AZ Alkmaar xG
5.46
18%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
9%
11.68
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
2%
63.73
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.46 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 42 games, going 22W 11D 9L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.69 PPG from 42 outings (20W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.83 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 12W 5D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (9W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.81 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 22W 11D 9L in their last 42 games (1.83 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Cambuur's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.95 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Cambuur
2
Draws
3
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
From 5 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Cambuur 2-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 67%, AZ Alkmaar 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Cambuur) and 52% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 52% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cambuur's matches and 52% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.34 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.46 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 18% | Draw 21% | AZ Alkmaar 61%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 64%, AZ Alkmaar 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.83 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.