AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 76%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as AZ Alkmaar welcome Heracles to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.50 PPG (AZ Alkmaar) versus 2.20 (Heracles). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AZ Alkmaar, 1 for Heracles and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Heracles trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 59% versus Heracles 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 62% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.97 xG and Heracles 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.310 / defence 0.786 | Heracles attack 0.894 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.451. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AZ Alkmaar's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 AZ Alkmaar games / 5 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 76% | Draw 15% | Heracles 9%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Heracles 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.97 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.99 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 76% | Draw 15% | Heracles 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 61% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.97 / Heracles 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.310 / def 0.786 | Heracles attack 0.894 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.97
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Heracles xG
61%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 1 Heracles.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 76% chance of winning, Heracles a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.97. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
76%
1.31
15%
6.73
9%
11.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.97
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.99
1.02
Heracles xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.73
15%
Draw
11.01
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
5%
19.57
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.97 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.02 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 39 games, going 25W 7D 7L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 2.10 PPG from 39 outings (26W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 2.10 PPG, Heracles on 2.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 1.68 points per game from 19 outings (10W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.56 scored and 1.31 conceded. Heracles's attacking output running into AZ Alkmaar's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 25W 7D 7L in their last 39 games (2.10 PPG), while Heracles have gone 26W 4D 9L in their last 39 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Heracles away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.00 PPG; Heracles away: 1.68 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Heracles in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AZ Alkmaar have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Heracles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, Heracles have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AZ Alkmaar at 68%, Heracles at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for AZ Alkmaar and 79% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 63% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 79% of Heracles's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Heracles tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Heracles in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and Heracles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar and Heracles finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.97 xG and Heracles 1.02 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.31 / defence 0.79 against Heracles attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 76% | Draw 15% | Heracles 9%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 62%, Heracles 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Heracles's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 2.10 PPG, Heracles 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.