AZ Alkmaar 5-0 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GO Ahead Eagles at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees GO Ahead Eagles travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 1W 0D 4L from 5 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GO Ahead Eagles — All Games: 2W 0D 4L from 6 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. GO Ahead Eagles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AZ Alkmaar at 0.60 PPG versus GO Ahead Eagles's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
GO Ahead Eagles in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 60% versus GO Ahead Eagles 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 80% | GO Ahead Eagles 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.42 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.739 / defence 1.323 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.781 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.476. AZ Alkmaar's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GO Ahead Eagles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 AZ Alkmaar games / 6 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 36% | Draw 24% | GO Ahead Eagles 40%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | GO Ahead Eagles 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GO Ahead Eagles at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 60% | GO Ahead Eagles 33%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 36% | Draw 24% | GO Ahead Eagles 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.42 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.739 / def 1.323 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.781 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.52
GO Ahead Eagles xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles?
AZ Alkmaar 5 - 0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 36% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (0.74) and GO Ahead Eagles's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GO Ahead Eagles's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
36%
2.82
24%
4.08
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.95
1.52
GO Ahead Eagles xG
2.82
36%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.52 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 0D 4L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GO Ahead Eagles's form line: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, GO Ahead Eagles are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: GO Ahead Eagles in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
GO Ahead Eagles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have AZ Alkmaar or GO Ahead Eagles been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, GO Ahead Eagles in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when AZ Alkmaar won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting GO Ahead Eagles specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
0
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 7, GO Ahead Eagles have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 0-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 60%, GO Ahead Eagles 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for AZ Alkmaar and 40% for GO Ahead Eagles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles in 40%; AZ Alkmaar have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play GO Ahead Eagles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 40% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 40% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and GO Ahead Eagles tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, GO Ahead Eagles in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 5-0 hammering of GO Ahead Eagles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat GO Ahead Eagles 5-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.42 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.52 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GO Ahead Eagles landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.74 / defence 1.32 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.78 / defence 1.48, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 36% | Draw 24% | GO Ahead Eagles 40%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 80%, GO Ahead Eagles 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with AZ Alkmaar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AZ Alkmaar scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. GO Ahead Eagles managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.