AZ Alkmaar 0-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar host Cambuur at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 1L across 9 games at AFAS Stadion this term (2.44 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur away from home this season: 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
AZ Alkmaar are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Cambuur 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 63% and Cambuur 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 68% | Cambuur 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.07 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.360 / defence 1.052 | Cambuur attack 1.005 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.355. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 AZ Alkmaar games / 19 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 26%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 3.85. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 67% | Cambuur 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.07 / Cambuur 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.360 / def 1.052 | Cambuur attack 1.005 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cambuur xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
AZ Alkmaar 0 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 52% chance of winning, Cambuur a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (1.36) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
52%
1.91
21%
4.72
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.50
1.43
Cambuur xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
3%
30.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.43 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 19 games, going 11W 2D 6L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (9W 2D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.84 PPG, Cambuur on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 7W 1D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — AZ Alkmaar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.74 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Cambuur in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 11W 2D 6L in their last 19 games (1.84 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 2D 8L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Cambuur away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.44 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, Cambuur have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cambuur see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 67%, Cambuur 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for AZ Alkmaar and 67% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 56% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 67% of Cambuur's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AZ Alkmaar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar and Cambuur finished level at 0-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.07 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.36 / defence 1.05 against Cambuur attack 1.00 / defence 1.37, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 26%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 68%, Cambuur 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.84 PPG, Cambuur 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.