Almere City FC 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almere City FC's home record at Yanmar Stadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 1.10 (Sparta Rotterdam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Almere City FC, 0 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 52% versus Sparta Rotterdam 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 43% | Sparta Rotterdam 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 0.91 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.618 / defence 1.045 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.091 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.333. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Almere City FC games / 63 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 20% | Draw 31% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.04. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 20% | Draw 31% | Sparta Rotterdam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Almere City FC 0.91 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.618 / def 1.045 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.091 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sparta Rotterdam xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Almere City FC 2 - 3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 20% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.62) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
20%
4.98
31%
3.24
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.52
Sparta Rotterdam xG
4.98
20%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
4%
22.71
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.52 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 29W 21D 17L from 67 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 28W 16D 23L across 67 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.61 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 13W 11D 9L from 33 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 14W 8D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.57 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 29W 21D 17L in their last 67 games (1.61 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 28W 16D 23L in their last 67 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.52 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Almere City FC 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 58%, Sparta Rotterdam 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Almere City FC) and 54% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 36%; Sparta Rotterdam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Almere City FC's recent games and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Almere City FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Almere City FC 2-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.91 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.52 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.04 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 20% | Draw 31% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 43%, Sparta Rotterdam 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.61 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.