Almere City FC 0-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face Heracles.

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Fixture Analysis

Almere City FC welcome Heracles to Yanmar Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 19 January 2025 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.

Heracles — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Heracles's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 0.80 PPG versus Heracles's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Almere City FC have won 1, Heracles 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Almere City FC 0–0 Heracles — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Almere City FC trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Heracles trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 43% versus Heracles 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | Heracles 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Almere City FC surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Heracles have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.74 xG and Heracles 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.801 / defence 1.284 | Heracles attack 0.770 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.305. Heracles's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Heracles's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Heracles's projected output up. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 52 games and Heracles's last 51.

Result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 24% | Heracles 29%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.09 | Draw 4.25 | Heracles 3.50. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Heracles 40% (last 10 away games).

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