Willem II 2-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 44%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Willem II vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 19 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Telstar (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Telstar's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 44% versus Telstar 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | Telstar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.25 xG and Telstar 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.811 / defence 1.078 | Telstar attack 1.042 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.386. Data: 2 Willem II games / 40 Telstar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 25% | Telstar 44%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Telstar 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 30% | Telstar 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 31% | Draw 25% | Telstar 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Willem II 1.25 / Telstar 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.811 / def 1.078 | Telstar attack 1.042 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Telstar (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Telstar xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Telstar kick off?
Willem II vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Willem II 2 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Willem II vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Telstar part of?
Willem II vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 31% chance of winning, Telstar a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Willem II and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Telstar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Telstar in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Telstar (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.81) and Telstar's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (1.04x) against Willem II's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
31%
3.26
25%
4.01
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.81
1.56
Telstar xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Willem II and 1.56 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 9W 7D 20L from 36 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 18L across 36 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Willem II against 0.94 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Telstar's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.17 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Telstar in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 9W 7D 20L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Telstar have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Telstar away?
Willem II's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.39 PPG; Telstar away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-5 on 24 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Telstar?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 39%, Telstar 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Willem II) and 61% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Willem II's games and 72% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Willem II's recent games and 61% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Telstar tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Telstar in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Telstar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Telstar 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.25 xG and Telstar 1.56 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Telstar attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 31% | Draw 25% | Telstar 44%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.94 PPG, Telstar 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.