Willem II 4-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Willem II at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face Jong AZ.

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Match Analysis

Willem II host Jong AZ at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 34). Kick-off is Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Willem II stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Willem II have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Willem II at 2.00 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Willem II's games and 80% of Jong AZ's (from Willem II's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Willem II have won 2, Jong AZ 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Willem II 2–0 Jong AZ — a Willem II win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 61% and Jong AZ 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 59% | Jong AZ 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.22 xG and Jong AZ 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.213 / defence 0.840 | Jong AZ attack 0.841 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Data: built from Willem II's last 71 games and Jong AZ's last 71.

Result probabilities: Willem II 66% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 14%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.53 | Draw 4.91 | Jong AZ 7.10. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 80% (last 10 away games).

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