Willem II 1-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Heracles at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Heracles have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Willem II 1.80 PPG, Heracles 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Willem II have won 1, Heracles 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Heracles in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 51% versus Heracles 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 53% | Heracles 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.43 xG and Heracles 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.756 / defence 0.938 | Heracles attack 1.190 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.333. Willem II's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Willem II games / 13 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 36% | Draw 25% | Heracles 39%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Heracles 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Willem II 50% | Heracles 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 36% | Draw 25% | Heracles 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Willem II 1.43 / Heracles 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.756 / def 0.938 | Heracles attack 1.190 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Heracles (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Heracles xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Heracles kick off?
Willem II vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Heracles?
Willem II 1 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Willem II vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Heracles part of?
Willem II vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 36% chance of winning, Heracles a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Willem II and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Willem II and Heracles in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Heracles (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.76x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
36%
2.75
25%
4.05
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.92
1.49
Heracles xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Willem II and 1.49 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 10D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.30 PPG from 47 outings (18W 7D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.17 PPG, Heracles on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (6W 1D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.43 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Heracles in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Heracles have gone 18W 7D 22L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Heracles away?
Willem II's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.52 PPG; Heracles away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, Heracles have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 44%, Heracles 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Willem II) and 61% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Willem II have failed to score in 30% of games; Heracles in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Willem II's recent matches and 35% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Willem II's recent games and 61% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Heracles tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Heracles in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.43 xG and Heracles 1.49 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Heracles attack 1.19 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 36% | Draw 25% | Heracles 39%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, Heracles 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.17 PPG, Heracles 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.