Willem II 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Groningen at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Groningen encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Groningen travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II in Eerste Divisie (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Willem II have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Willem II have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Groningen — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Groningen's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Groningen's 2.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Willem II's 2.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Willem II have won 1, Groningen 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Willem II 0–0 Groningen — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).

Groningen in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus Groningen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 59% | Groningen 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.34 xG and Groningen 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.302 / defence 0.835 | Groningen attack 1.224 / defence 0.635. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.396. Willem II carry an above-average attack rating of 1.302 — their 1.34 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Groningen bring a tight defence (rating 0.635, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Willem II's projected output down. Groningen have an above-average attack rating of 1.224, which lifts their away xG to 1.43. Data: built from Willem II's last 73 games and Groningen's last 35.

Result probabilities: Willem II 35% | Draw 27% | Groningen 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.90 | Draw 3.68 | Groningen 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Willem II 70% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 30% (last 10 away games).

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