Willem II 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 6W 3D 1L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Willem II. A 1.10 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.80 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 46% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 51% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.47 xG and Den Bosch 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.815 / defence 0.818 | Den Bosch attack 0.827 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.400. Data: 9 Willem II games / 47 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 48% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 23%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Den Bosch 4.35. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 30% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 48% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Willem II 1.47 / Den Bosch 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.815 / def 0.818 | Den Bosch attack 0.827 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Willem II (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Den Bosch xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Den Bosch kick off?
Willem II vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Willem II 1 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Willem II vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Den Bosch part of?
Willem II vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 48% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Willem II and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Den Bosch in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Willem II's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.83x) against Willem II's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.41
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.42
0.95
Den Bosch xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
19.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Willem II and 0.95 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 9D 21L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 14W 5D 24L from 43 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Willem II against 1.09 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 13L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.12 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 13W 9D 21L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 5D 24L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Den Bosch away?
Willem II's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.62 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-4 on 15 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Den Bosch?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Den Bosch?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 38%, Den Bosch 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Willem II) and 57% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Willem II have failed to score in 33% of games; Den Bosch in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Willem II's recent matches and 52% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Willem II's recent games and 57% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.47 xG and Den Bosch 0.95 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.81 / defence 0.82 against Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 48% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 23%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 51%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.12 PPG, Den Bosch 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.