Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and De Graafschap meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Willem II are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Willem II and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 60% and De Graafschap 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 53% | De Graafschap 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.37 xG and De Graafschap 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.870 / defence 0.782 | De Graafschap attack 1.108 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.513. Willem II's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Willem II games / 70 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 36%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Mar 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Willem II 1.37 / De Graafschap 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.870 / def 0.782 | De Graafschap attack 1.108 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Willem II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.31
De Graafschap xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs De Graafschap kick off?
Willem II vs De Graafschap kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 28 March 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Willem II 0 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Willem II vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs De Graafschap part of?
Willem II vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 38% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 4W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Willem II and De Graafschap in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.87x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.11x) against Willem II's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.86
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.68
1.31
De Graafschap xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Willem II and 1.31 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 70 games, going 22W 17D 31L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.64 PPG from 70 outings (33W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 11W 7D 16L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.35 points per game from 34 outings (12W 10D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 66%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 33W 16D 21L in their last 70 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.18 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-3 on 16 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Willem II
1
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and De Graafschap?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 4, De Graafschap have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 59%, De Graafschap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Willem II) and 62% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Willem II's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Willem II's matches and 62% of De Graafschap's.
Do Willem II and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Willem II 0-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.37 xG and De Graafschap 1.31 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 0.78 against De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 38% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 36%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, De Graafschap 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.