Waalwijk 2-3 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and Den Bosch meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Waalwijk's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Waalwijk 0W, Den Bosch 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 67% and Den Bosch 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 67% | Den Bosch 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.90 xG and Den Bosch 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.979 / defence 1.028 | Den Bosch attack 0.946 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.466. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Waalwijk games / 70 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 49% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 29%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 3.45. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Den Bosch 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 49% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Waalwijk 1.90 / Den Bosch 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.979 / def 1.028 | Den Bosch attack 0.946 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Den Bosch xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Den Bosch kick off?
Waalwijk vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Waalwijk 2 - 3 Den Bosch.
Where is Waalwijk vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Den Bosch part of?
Waalwijk vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 49% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Waalwijk and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Den Bosch in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Waalwijk's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.95x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.49
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.33
1.43
Den Bosch xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
4%
23.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.43 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 19W 16D 31L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 23W 17D 26L from 66 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.30 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.30 PPG from 33 outings (12W 7D 14L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 8W 7D 18L from 33 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 19W 16D 31L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 23W 17D 26L in their last 66 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Den Bosch away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.30 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
1
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Den Bosch have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Waalwijk 2-3 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 64%, Den Bosch 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 70% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 64% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 70% of Den Bosch's.
Do Waalwijk and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.90 xG and Den Bosch 1.43 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 49% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 29%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, Den Bosch 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.11 PPG, Den Bosch 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.