Waalwijk 1-4 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.60 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, De Graafschap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and De Graafschap 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 67% | De Graafschap 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.59 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.047 / defence 1.132 | De Graafschap attack 0.997 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.444. Data: 14 Waalwijk games / 51 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 37% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 39%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 37% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Waalwijk 1.59 / De Graafschap 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.047 / def 1.132 | De Graafschap attack 0.997 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.63
De Graafschap xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs De Graafschap kick off?
Waalwijk vs De Graafschap kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Waalwijk 1 - 4 De Graafschap.
Where is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap part of?
Waalwijk vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 37% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and De Graafschap in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.05) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.00x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 14/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.67
23%
4.28
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.22
1.63
De Graafschap xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.63 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 12W 11D 25L from 48 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 15L across 48 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 8W 5D 11L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 12W 11D 25L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or De Graafschap away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.21 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and De Graafschap?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 58%, De Graafschap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 54% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Waalwijk's games and 62% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 54% of De Graafschap's.
Do Waalwijk and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Waalwijk 1-4 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.59 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.05 / defence 1.13 against De Graafschap attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 14/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 37% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 39%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, De Graafschap 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.