VVV Venlo 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host De Graafschap at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — VVV Venlo are significantly better at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 54% versus De Graafschap 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 64% | De Graafschap 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.00 xG and De Graafschap 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.879 / defence 0.977 | De Graafschap attack 1.098 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.347. Data: 11 VVV Venlo games / 11 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 26% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 47%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 2.13. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: VVV Venlo 50% | De Graafschap 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 26% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG VVV Venlo 1.00 / De Graafschap 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.879 / def 0.977 | De Graafschap attack 1.098 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.45
De Graafschap xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kick off?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap part of?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 26% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both VVV Venlo and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.88) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
26%
3.83
27%
3.77
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.45
1.45
De Graafschap xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.45 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 1D 5L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.45 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — VVV Venlo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 2.40 points per game from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.82 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.64 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or De Graafschap away?
VVV Venlo's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 2.40 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.40 PPG.
Have VVV Venlo or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, De Graafschap have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 40%, De Graafschap 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for VVV Venlo and 80% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; De Graafschap in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 60% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of VVV Venlo's matches and 80% of De Graafschap's.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out VVV Venlo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat VVV Venlo 1-2 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.00 xG and De Graafschap 1.45 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 1.10 / defence 0.89, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 26% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 47%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 64%, De Graafschap 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.45 PPG, De Graafschap 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.