Vitesse vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Heracles at 63%, yet in-form Vitesse provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vitesse vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Heracles make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vitesse have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 2W 5D 3L at GelreDome — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
Heracles's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Vitesse's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vitesse have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Heracles in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Heracles winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 63% versus Heracles 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 68% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.51 xG and Heracles 2.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.836 / defence 1.017 | Heracles attack 1.564 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — the away xG of 2.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Vitesse games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 20% | Draw 17% | Heracles 63%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 5.00 | Draw 5.88 | Heracles 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitesse (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 4.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 20% | Draw 17% | Heracles 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 73% | xG Vitesse 1.51 / Heracles 2.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.836 / def 1.017 | Heracles attack 1.564 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Heracles (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
2.70
Heracles xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Heracles kick off?
Vitesse vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at GelreDome.
Where is Vitesse vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Heracles part of?
Vitesse vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 20% chance of winning, Heracles a 63% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Vitesse and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Heracles?
Record (4 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 1 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Heracles in?
Vitesse (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.84x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.56x) against Vitesse's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 2.70.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
20%
5.04
17%
5.77
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Vitesse xG
Total xG
4.21
2.70
Heracles xG
5.04
20%
Home win
5.77
17%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
7%
14.92
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
1%
75.19
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Vitesse and 2.70 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse's recent record stands at 16W 11D 11L from 38 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 25L across 38 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitesse by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 6W 7D 6L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 1D 14L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.34 scored and 2.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Heracles in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Heracles away?
Vitesse's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.32 PPG; Heracles away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Heracles?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Heracles have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Heracles 3-2 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Heracles?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 68%, Heracles 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Vitesse and 79% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Vitesse's games and 58% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Vitesse's matches and 79% of Heracles's.
Do Vitesse and Heracles tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Heracles in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.