Vitesse 2-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GelreDome plays host to Vitesse versus Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Vitesse have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Vitesse are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Helmond Sport (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Helmond Sport arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 56% versus Helmond Sport 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 60% | Helmond Sport 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.01 xG and Helmond Sport 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.667 / defence 1.485 | Helmond Sport attack 1.047 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.429. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Vitesse's defence rating of 1.485 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Helmond Sport's projected output up. Data: built from Vitesse's last 16 games and Helmond Sport's last 54.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 15% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 64%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 6.47 | Draw 4.89 | Helmond Sport 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Helmond Sport (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vitesse's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitesse 80% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 15% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Vitesse 1.01 / Helmond Sport 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.667 / def 1.485 | Helmond Sport attack 1.047 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Helmond Sport xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitesse vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Vitesse vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Vitesse vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 29 November 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Helmond Sport?
Vitesse 2 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Vitesse vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Helmond Sport part of?
Vitesse vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 15% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vitesse and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vitesse vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (1.05x) against Vitesse's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from Vitesse's last 16 games and Helmond Sport's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
15%
6.47
20%
4.89
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.24
2.22
Helmond Sport xG
6.47
15%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
11%
9.23
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
2%
59.71
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitesse vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Vitesse and 2.22 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse's recent record stands at 8W 12D 30L from 50 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 17L across 50 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Helmond Sport by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 2W 10D 12L from their last 24 home games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 9W 5D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.48 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 60%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
Vitesse (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitesse
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Vitesse vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Vitesse and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 8W 12D 30L in their last 50 games (0.72 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Helmond Sport away?
Helmond Sport's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.67 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Vitesse and Helmond Sport, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 16 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helmond Sport won Helmond Sport 3-0 Vitesse on 21 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitesse vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Helmond Sport?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitesse have won 2, Helmond Sport have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 January 2026: Helmond Sport 2-2 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Helmond Sport?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 62%, Helmond Sport 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vitesse) and 58% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 33% of games; Helmond Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitesse vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitesse and Helmond Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vitesse's games and 50% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vitesse and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vitesse's recent games and 58% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Vitesse's recent matches and 75% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Helmond Sport 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Helmond Sport 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.01 xG and Helmond Sport 2.22 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helmond Sport landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.67 / defence 1.49 against Helmond Sport attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 15% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 64%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 60%, Helmond Sport 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Helmond Sport arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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