Telstar 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to BUKO Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BUKO Stadion, Telstar have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Telstar, 1.60 for Den Bosch — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Telstar 1W, Den Bosch 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 61% versus Den Bosch 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 59% | Den Bosch 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.53 xG and Den Bosch 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.763 / defence 1.166 | Den Bosch attack 1.120 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.347. Telstar's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Telstar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Telstar games / 54 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 34% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 43%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 50% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 34% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Telstar 1.53 / Den Bosch 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.763 / def 1.166 | Den Bosch attack 1.120 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Den Bosch xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Den Bosch kick off?
Telstar vs Den Bosch kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Telstar 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Telstar vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Den Bosch part of?
Telstar vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 34% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Telstar and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.76) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.12x) against Telstar's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
34%
2.97
23%
4.36
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.29
1.76
Den Bosch xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.23
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Telstar and 1.76 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 18D 24L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 20W 6D 28L from 54 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Telstar against 1.22 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Telstar have posted 0.96 PPG from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.26 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 12W 18D 24L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 6D 28L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Den Bosch away?
Telstar's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.96 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Telstar
3
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Telstar have won 6, Den Bosch have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Den Bosch?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 58%, Den Bosch 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Telstar and 58% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 31% of games; Den Bosch in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Telstar's games and 54% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Telstar's matches and 58% of Den Bosch's.
Do Telstar and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Den Bosch 1-0 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.53 xG and Den Bosch 1.76 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Den Bosch attack 1.12 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 34% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 43%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 59%, Den Bosch 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.00 PPG, Den Bosch 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.