Telstar 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 43%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Telstar vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Telstar are significantly better at 711 Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, De Graafschap are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Telstar have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Telstar lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Telstar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 47% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 47% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.66 xG and De Graafschap 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.882 / defence 0.968 | De Graafschap attack 1.061 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.338. Data: 51 Telstar games / 51 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 43% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 43% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Telstar 1.66 / De Graafschap 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.882 / def 0.968 | De Graafschap attack 1.061 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Telstar (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.37
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs De Graafschap kick off?
Telstar vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Telstar 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Telstar vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs De Graafschap part of?
Telstar vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 43% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Telstar and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): Telstar 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.88) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.06x) against Telstar's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.74
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.03
1.37
De Graafschap xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
6%
17.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Telstar and 1.37 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Telstar's recent record stands at 17W 12D 22L from 51 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 20L across 51 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Telstar against 1.47 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 11W 5D 9L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 5D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Telstar are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.57 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 22W 9D 20L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or De Graafschap away?
Telstar's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.52 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 5-1 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 48%, De Graafschap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Telstar and 76% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Telstar's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Telstar's matches and 76% of De Graafschap's.
Do Telstar and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Telstar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Telstar 1-2 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.66 xG and De Graafschap 1.37 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 43% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 30%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 47%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.24 PPG, De Graafschap 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.