Roda 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Round of 16 sees Waalwijk travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 April 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Waalwijk are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Roda, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 58% and Waalwijk 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Waalwijk 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.39 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.755 / defence 1.075 | Waalwijk attack 1.176 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.422. Roda's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 76 Roda games / 38 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 2.13. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Round of 16 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Roda 1.39 / Waalwijk 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.755 / def 1.075 | Waalwijk attack 1.176 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Waalwijk kick off?
Roda vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Roda 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Roda vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Waalwijk part of?
Roda vs Waalwijk is a Round of 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 30% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Roda and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Roda and Waalwijk in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
30%
3.34
23%
4.35
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Roda xG
Total xG
3.19
1.80
Waalwijk xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
5%
20.15
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Roda and 1.80 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Roda have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 27W 21D 24L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 22W 17D 33L from 72 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.42 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.39 PPG from 36 outings (13W 11D 12L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 8W 10D 18L from 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.60 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 68%.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 27W 21D 24L in their last 72 games (1.42 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 22W 17D 33L in their last 72 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Waalwijk away?
Roda's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.39 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Roda
2
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 47%, Waalwijk 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Roda) and 69% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Roda's games and 72% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Roda's matches and 69% of Waalwijk's.
Do Roda and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Round of 16, as Roda and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.39 xG and Waalwijk 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Waalwijk attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 30% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 47%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Waalwijk 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.42 PPG, Waalwijk 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.