Roda 2-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Roda, 1.40 for MVV — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, MVV in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus MVV 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | MVV 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.19 xG and MVV 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.915 / defence 1.006 | MVV attack 1.141 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.299. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Roda games / 59 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 54% | Draw 20% | MVV 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.85 | Draw 5.00 | MVV 3.85. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 80% | MVV 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 54% | Draw 20% | MVV 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Roda 2.19 / MVV 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.915 / def 1.006 | MVV attack 1.141 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Roda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.49
MVV xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs MVV kick off?
Roda vs MVV kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs MVV?
Roda 2 - 1 MVV.
Where is Roda vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs MVV part of?
Roda vs MVV is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 54% chance of winning, MVV a 26% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Roda and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 2 | MVV 0W.
What form are Roda and MVV in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.92x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (1.14x) against Roda's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
54%
1.87
20%
4.89
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Roda xG
Total xG
3.68
1.49
MVV xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
3%
34.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Roda and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Roda and 1.49 for MVV, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 25W 17D 17L from 59 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 28L across 59 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Roda against 1.27 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 15W 8D 7L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 10W 3D 17L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.41 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and MVV in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 25W 17D 17L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while MVV have gone 22W 9D 28L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or MVV away?
Roda's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.77 PPG; MVV away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
3
Draws
1
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, MVV have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Roda 2-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Roda and MVV?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, MVV 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Roda and 70% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 57% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 70% of MVV's.
Do Roda and MVV tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, MVV in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out MVV 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat MVV 2-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.19 xG and MVV 1.49 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against MVV attack 1.14 / defence 1.43, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 54% | Draw 20% | MVV 26%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, MVV 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.56 PPG, MVV 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.