Roda 2-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host FC OSS at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 3W 2D 5L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 0.80 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Roda, 1 for FC OSS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus FC OSS 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 55% | FC OSS 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.97 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.134 / defence 1.021 | FC OSS attack 0.832 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.262. Data: 40 Roda games / 40 FC OSS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Roda 58% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 20%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | FC OSS 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Roda (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 58% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Roda 1.97 / FC OSS 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.134 / def 1.021 | FC OSS attack 0.832 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Roda (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC OSS xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC OSS kick off?
Roda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Roda 2 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Roda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC OSS part of?
Roda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 58% chance of winning, FC OSS a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Roda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Roda and FC OSS in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.13x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
58%
1.71
22%
4.64
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Roda xG
Total xG
3.05
1.07
FC OSS xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
3%
35.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Roda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Roda and 1.07 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Roda have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 7D 19L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 11W 7D 22L from 40 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.23 PPG, FC OSS on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 4W 4D 12L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.23 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 7D 22L in their last 40 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC OSS away?
Roda's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.40 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
2
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, FC OSS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC OSS?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 70%, FC OSS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Roda) and 60% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Roda's games and 50% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Roda's matches and 60% of FC OSS's.
Do Roda and FC OSS tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC OSS 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.97 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.13 / defence 1.02 against FC OSS attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Roda 58% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 20%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, FC OSS 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.23 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.