Roda 2-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.38 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.88 goals per game, with 1.62 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 3L from 8 games (1.62 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.38 PPG for Roda against 1.62 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 50% versus FC Eindhoven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 62% | FC Eindhoven 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.51 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.890 / defence 1.185 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.849 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.343. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Roda games / 8 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 34%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | FC Eindhoven 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | FC Eindhoven 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Roda 1.51 / FC Eindhoven 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.890 / def 1.185 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.849 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Roda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Roda 2 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Roda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 41% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Roda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Roda's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.85x) against Roda's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
41%
2.43
25%
4.02
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Roda xG
Total xG
2.87
1.35
FC Eindhoven xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Roda and 1.35 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Roda against 1.62 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Roda's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; FC Eindhoven in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Roda's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Roda or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
5
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 50% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Roda's recent games and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.51 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.27, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 41% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 62%, FC Eindhoven 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.38 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.