Roda 4-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.90 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Roda, 0 for Dordrecht and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 5–2 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Dordrecht trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 59% and Dordrecht 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 59% | Dordrecht 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.37 xG and Dordrecht 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.175 / defence 0.955 | Dordrecht attack 1.005 / defence 1.730. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.436. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.730 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Roda games / 27 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 59% | Draw 19% | Dordrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Dordrecht 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Roda (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 59% | Draw 19% | Dordrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Roda 2.37 / Dordrecht 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.175 / def 0.955 | Dordrecht attack 1.005 / def 1.730 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Roda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Dordrecht xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Dordrecht kick off?
Roda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Roda 4 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Roda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Dordrecht part of?
Roda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 59% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Roda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
59%
1.68
19%
5.17
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Roda xG
Total xG
3.75
1.38
Dordrecht xG
1.68
59%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
2%
50.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Roda and 1.38 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 11W 10D 6L from 27 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 14L across 27 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 5W 5D 3L from 13 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.48 scored and 2.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 74%.
Last 27 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 11W 10D 6L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Dordrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.54 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Roda or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
0
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, Dordrecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dordrecht 0-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Dordrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 54%, Dordrecht at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Roda and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Roda's games and 85% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Roda's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do Roda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Dordrecht 4-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.37 xG and Dordrecht 1.38 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.18 / defence 0.95 against Dordrecht attack 1.00 / defence 1.73, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 59% | Draw 19% | Dordrecht 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 59%, Dordrecht 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dordrecht's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.