PEC Zwolle 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 7 August 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PEC Zwolle haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for PEC Zwolle, 1.00 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 41% versus De Graafschap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 32% | De Graafschap 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 1.055 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.320. Data: 0 PEC Zwolle games / 38 De Graafschap games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 46%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.17. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | De Graafschap 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.22 / De Graafschap 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 1.055 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.60
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap part of?
PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 29% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.85) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.05x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
29%
3.44
25%
4.06
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.82
1.60
De Graafschap xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.60 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 6D 21L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. PEC Zwolle haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.41 PPG from 34 outings (12W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. De Graafschap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 3W 5D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.76 points per game from 17 outings (9W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.35 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Pre-Season
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 7W 6D 21L in their last 34 games (0.79 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 12W 12D 10L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.82 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.76 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
0
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, De Graafschap have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2023, when De Graafschap 0-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 53%, De Graafschap 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (PEC Zwolle) and 65% (De Graafschap).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 41%; PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 47% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 65% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and De Graafschap tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat De Graafschap 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 29% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 46%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 32%, De Graafschap 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.