NAC Breda 3-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Groningen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Groningen travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 October 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Groningen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Groningen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Groningen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 71% versus Groningen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 71% | Groningen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.44 xG and Groningen 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.005 / defence 1.303 | Groningen attack 0.945 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.391. Data: 46 NAC Breda games / 8 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 32% | Draw 23% | Groningen 44%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | Groningen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Groningen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 32% | Draw 23% | Groningen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG NAC Breda 1.44 / Groningen 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.005 / def 1.303 | Groningen attack 0.945 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Groningen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Groningen xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Groningen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Groningen?
NAC Breda 3 - 2 Groningen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Groningen part of?
NAC Breda vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 32% chance of winning, Groningen a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both NAC Breda and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Groningen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.00x the league average against Groningen's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
32%
3.08
23%
4.27
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.15
1.71
Groningen xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
6%
17.11
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.71 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 18W 5D 19L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 8W 7D 27L from 42 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (9W 2D 9L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 3W 3D 14L from 20 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.02 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Groningen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 18W 5D 19L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Groningen have gone 8W 7D 27L in their last 42 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Groningen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.45 PPG; Groningen away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2024, when Groningen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Groningen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Groningen 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Groningen see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 70%, Groningen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for NAC Breda and 55% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 50% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of NAC Breda's matches and 55% of Groningen's.
Do NAC Breda and Groningen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Groningen in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Groningen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Groningen 3-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.44 xG and Groningen 1.71 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.00 / defence 1.30 against Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 32% | Draw 23% | Groningen 44%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 71%, Groningen 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.