NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
ADO Den Haag travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, NAC Breda stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, NAC Breda have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, ADO Den Haag have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.30 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of NAC Breda's games and 80% of ADO Den Haag's (from NAC Breda's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
ADO Den Haag have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for NAC Breda.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended NAC Breda 1–3 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.
The H2H data backs the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 72% and ADO Den Haag 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 65% | ADO Den Haag 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.19 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.857 / defence 1.012 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 74 games and ADO Den Haag's last 74.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 44%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.63 | Draw 3.57 | ADO Den Haag 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (ADO Den Haag 6 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 60% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 37 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG NAC Breda 1.19 / ADO Den Haag 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.857 / def 1.012 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.123 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.56
ADO Den Haag xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
NAC Breda 2 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 37) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 28% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.86x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 74 games and ADO Den Haag's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
28%
3.63
28%
3.57
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.75
1.56
ADO Den Haag xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.56 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 32W 14D 28L from 74 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 30W 23D 21L across 74 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.49 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 17W 7D 13L from their last 37 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 16W 11D 10L across their last 37 away games, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.61 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 65%.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
NAC Breda (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 32W 14D 28L in their last 74 games (1.49 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 30W 23D 21L in their last 74 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.57 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won NAC Breda 3-0 ADO Den Haag.
NAC Breda's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2024: NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 70%, ADO Den Haag at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NAC Breda) and 57% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 62% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NAC Breda's matches and 57% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 70% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 37, as NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.19 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.56 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 28% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 44%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 65%, ADO Den Haag 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.49 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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