MVV 2-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
MVV have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 1W 2D 7L at De Geusselt — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jong AZ's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Jong AZ are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: MVV 1W, Jong AZ 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with MVV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
MVV — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 52% versus Jong AZ 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 59% | Jong AZ 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 0.94 xG and Jong AZ 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.682 / defence 1.418 | Jong AZ attack 0.535 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.439. MVV's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 MVV games / 29 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 31% | Jong AZ 38%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Jong AZ 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: MVV 60% | Jong AZ 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 31% | Jong AZ 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG MVV 0.94 / Jong AZ 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.682 / def 1.418 | Jong AZ attack 0.535 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Jong AZ xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Jong AZ kick off?
MVV vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
MVV 2 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is MVV vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong AZ part of?
MVV vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 30% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both MVV and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in?
MVV (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.68x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.54x) against MVV's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
30%
3.28
31%
3.18
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
MVV xG
Total xG
2.04
1.09
Jong AZ xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for MVV and 1.09 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 2D 19L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.00 PPG from 29 outings (8W 5D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for MVV against 1.00 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 4W 2D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (2W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.93 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 8W 2D 19L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 8W 5D 16L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong AZ away?
MVV's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.00 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
1
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Jong AZ have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Jong AZ 1-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 57%, Jong AZ 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (MVV) and 43% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 29% of games; Jong AZ in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of MVV's recent matches and 43% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of MVV's recent games and 43% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do MVV and Jong AZ tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out MVV 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat MVV 2-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 0.94 xG and Jong AZ 1.09 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.68 / defence 1.42 against Jong AZ attack 0.54 / defence 1.10, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 30% | Draw 31% | Jong AZ 38%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, Jong AZ 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 0.90 PPG, Jong AZ 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.