MVV 1-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Excelsior make the trip to De Geusselt to face MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 15 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 0W 2D 8L at De Geusselt — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Geusselt this season.
Excelsior have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Excelsior away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Excelsior are 1.00 PPG clear of MVV in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — MVV have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Excelsior in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: MVV 0W, Excelsior 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 56% versus Excelsior 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 65% | Excelsior 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.19 xG and Excelsior 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.724 / defence 1.760 | Excelsior attack 1.013 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.431. MVV's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 MVV games / 34 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 16% | Draw 18% | Excelsior 67%. Fair-value odds: MVV 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Excelsior 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 60% | Excelsior 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 16% | Draw 18% | Excelsior 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 64% | xG MVV 1.19 / Excelsior 2.55 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.724 / def 1.760 | Excelsior attack 1.013 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
MVV xG
Expected Goals
2.55
Excelsior xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Excelsior kick off?
MVV vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Excelsior?
MVV 1 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is MVV vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Excelsior part of?
MVV vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 16% chance of winning, Excelsior a 67% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both MVV and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are MVV and Excelsior in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Excelsior (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.72) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.01x) against MVV's defence (1.76x) — and the away total comes out at 2.55.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
16%
6.39
18%
5.67
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
MVV xG
Total xG
3.73
2.55
Excelsior xG
6.39
16%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
8%
12.81
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
1%
81.89
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are MVV and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for MVV and 2.55 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
MVV's recent record stands at 10W 2D 22L from 34 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 10L across 34 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, MVV have managed 4W 2D 11L from 17 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 10W 2D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.18 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Excelsior in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 10W 2D 22L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 19W 5D 10L in their last 34 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 0.82 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.88 PPG.
Have MVV or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Excelsior in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Excelsior have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
MVV
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when MVV 1-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 59%, Excelsior 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for MVV and 65% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of MVV's games and 59% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of MVV's matches and 65% of Excelsior's.
Do MVV and Excelsior tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and Excelsior finished level at 1-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.19 xG and Excelsior 2.55 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.72 / defence 1.76 against Excelsior attack 1.01 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 16% | Draw 18% | Excelsior 67%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 65%, Excelsior 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.