MVV 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Den Bosch travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
MVV are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for MVV, 2 for Den Bosch and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Den Bosch trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 61% versus Den Bosch 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 63% | Den Bosch 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.05 xG and Den Bosch 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.169 / defence 0.984 | Den Bosch attack 0.929 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.341. Data: 49 MVV games / 49 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 56% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 22%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Den Bosch 4.55. The model has a clear lean to MVV (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 80% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 56% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG MVV 2.05 / Den Bosch 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.169 / def 0.984 | Den Bosch attack 0.929 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: MVV (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Den Bosch xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Den Bosch kick off?
MVV vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
MVV 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is MVV vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Den Bosch part of?
MVV vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 56% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both MVV and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in?
MVV (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.17) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
56%
1.77
21%
4.72
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
MVV xG
Total xG
3.28
1.23
Den Bosch xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
3%
34.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are MVV and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for MVV and 1.23 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
MVV's recent record stands at 18W 7D 24L from 49 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 26L across 49 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.24 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, MVV have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 4D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.18 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 18W 7D 24L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 18W 5D 26L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Den Bosch away?
MVV's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.33 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between MVV and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
2
Draws
4
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Den Bosch have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (MVV) and 54% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of MVV's games and 50% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of MVV's matches and 54% of Den Bosch's.
Do MVV and Den Bosch tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Den Bosch 3-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.05 xG and Den Bosch 1.23 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Den Bosch attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 56% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 22%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 63%, Den Bosch 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.24 PPG, Den Bosch 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.