MVV 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Den Bosch travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Den Bosch's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: MVV 1.10 PPG, Den Bosch 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for MVV, 3 for Den Bosch and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Den Bosch trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 65% versus Den Bosch 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 71% | Den Bosch 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.81 xG and Den Bosch 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.088 / defence 1.233 | Den Bosch attack 0.733 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.337. Data: 68 MVV games / 68 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 51% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 24%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Den Bosch 4.17. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: MVV 60% | Den Bosch 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 51% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG MVV 1.81 / Den Bosch 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.088 / def 1.233 | Den Bosch attack 0.733 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: MVV (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Den Bosch xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Den Bosch kick off?
MVV vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 March 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
MVV 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is MVV vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Den Bosch part of?
MVV vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 51% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both MVV and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.09) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
51%
1.98
25%
4.01
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
MVV xG
Total xG
3.02
1.21
Den Bosch xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are MVV and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for MVV and 1.21 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
MVV's recent record stands at 27W 12D 29L from 68 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 40L across 68 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, MVV have managed 16W 7D 10L from 33 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 5W 5D 23L across 33 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.09 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 27W 12D 29L in their last 68 games (1.37 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 40L in their last 68 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Den Bosch away?
MVV's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.67 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between MVV and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
2
Draws
4
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Den Bosch have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Den Bosch 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for MVV and 61% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of MVV's recent matches and 42% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of MVV's matches and 61% of Den Bosch's.
Do MVV and Den Bosch tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Den Bosch 1-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.81 xG and Den Bosch 1.21 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Den Bosch attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 51% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 24%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 71%, Den Bosch 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.