Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Roda have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.00 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Roda have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Jong Utrecht's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Roda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus Roda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 55% | Roda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.17 xG and Roda 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.713 / defence 0.940 | Roda attack 0.788 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.222. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Jong Utrecht games / 64 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 30% | Roda 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Roda 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 30% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 30% | Roda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.17 / Roda 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.713 / def 0.940 | Roda attack 0.788 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Roda xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Roda kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 3 Roda.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Roda part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 42% chance of winning, Roda a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 3W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.71) and Roda's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.79x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.35
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.07
0.91
Roda xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.91 for Roda, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 16W 10D 38L from 64 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 20L across 64 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 8W 3D 21L from 32 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 11W 9D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.70 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 16W 10D 38L in their last 64 games (0.91 PPG), while Roda have gone 27W 17D 20L in their last 64 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.84 PPG; Roda away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
7
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, Roda have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 31%, Roda 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jong Utrecht) and 53% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 56% of games; Roda in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 53% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 53% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Roda in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Utrecht 1-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.17 xG and Roda 0.91 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Roda attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 42% | Draw 30% | Roda 28%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 55%, Roda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.