Jong Utrecht 1-4 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ADO Den Haag make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 6 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 3W 0D 5L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
ADO Den Haag have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, ADO Den Haag are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Utrecht — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 59% versus ADO Den Haag 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 65% | ADO Den Haag 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.90 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.716 / defence 1.298 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.965 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.531. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Jong Utrecht games / 17 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 17% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 61%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | ADO Den Haag 1.64. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 38% | ADO Den Haag 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 17% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.90 / ADO Den Haag 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.716 / def 1.298 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.965 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.92
ADO Den Haag xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 4 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 17% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.72) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (0.96x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
17%
5.89
22%
4.61
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.81
1.92
ADO Den Haag xG
5.89
17%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
15%
6.80
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
2%
40.05
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.92 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 4D 8L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 2.06 PPG from 17 outings (11W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 3W 0D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: ADO Den Haag in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 11W 2D 4L in their last 17 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.12 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 6-0 on 27 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
6
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 38%, ADO Den Haag 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jong Utrecht) and 50% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 38%; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 50% of games; ADO Den Haag in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 38% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 50% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Jong Utrecht and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Jong Utrecht 1-4 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.90 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.92 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.72 / defence 1.30 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 17% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 61%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 65%, ADO Den Haag 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.