Jong PSV U21 1-4 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees FC Volendam travel to PSV Campus De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 2W 2D 6L at PSV Campus De Herdgang — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Volendam are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 1 for FC Volendam and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
FC Volendam trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 65% and FC Volendam 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 75% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.86 xG and FC Volendam 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.009 / defence 1.356 | FC Volendam attack 1.243 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 2.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Jong PSV U21 games / 14 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 31% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 49%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 3.23 | Draw 5.00 | FC Volendam 2.04. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 2.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 31% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.86 / FC Volendam 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.009 / def 1.356 | FC Volendam attack 1.243 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.34
FC Volendam xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 4 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 31% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 49% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.01) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 2.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
31%
3.24
20%
4.94
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.20
2.34
FC Volendam xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.27
Clean Sheet
10%
10.39
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
3%
33.67
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.34 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 12W 9D 27L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 12W 9D 27L from 48 games, 0.94 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 0.94 PPG, FC Volendam on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 0.78 PPG from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 4W 7D 12L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.38 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 games (0.94 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 9D 27L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.78 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 74%, FC Volendam at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Jong PSV U21 and 74% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Jong PSV U21's games and 83% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 74% of FC Volendam's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong PSV U21 1-4 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.86 xG and FC Volendam 2.34 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 2.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.36 against FC Volendam attack 1.24 / defence 1.22, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 31% | Draw 20% | FC Volendam 49%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.94 PPG, FC Volendam 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.