Jong PSV U21 3-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as Jong PSV U21 welcome FC Eindhoven to Sportcomplex De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Jong PSV U21's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 0.78 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.794 / defence 1.078 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.779 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 0.971 / away 1.653. Jong PSV U21's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Jong PSV U21 games / 2 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 19% | Draw 31% | FC Eindhoven 50%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | FC Eindhoven 2.00. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 19% | Draw 31% | FC Eindhoven 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Jong PSV U21 0.78 / FC Eindhoven 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.794 / def 1.078 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.779 / def 1.009 | league avg home 0.971 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Eindhoven xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 19% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 0.79x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
19%
5.20
31%
3.22
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.17
1.39
FC Eindhoven xG
5.20
19%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
5%
20.85
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.39 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Jong PSV U21 or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when FC Eindhoven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Jong PSV U21's recent games and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat FC Eindhoven 3-2 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 0.78 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.39 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 19% | Draw 31% | FC Eindhoven 50%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 0%, FC Eindhoven 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong PSV U21 scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.