Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht meet at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong PSV U21's home record at PSV Campus De Herdgang: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at PSV Campus De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dordrecht arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dordrecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jong PSV U21, 0 for Dordrecht and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 94% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 62% and Dordrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 62% | Dordrecht 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.34 xG and Dordrecht 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.153 / defence 1.301 | Dordrecht attack 0.801 / defence 1.605. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.452. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.605 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Jong PSV U21 games / 37 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Dordrecht 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.34 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.34 / Dordrecht 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.153 / def 1.301 | Dordrecht attack 0.801 / def 1.605 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Dordrecht xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 56% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.15) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.80x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
56%
1.78
20%
5.11
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.85
1.51
Dordrecht xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
2%
42.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.51 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 11W 10D 16L from 37 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 19L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.03 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 4W 2D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.41 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 10W 8D 19L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.44 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 1-4 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Jong PSV U21, 72% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jong PSV U21 and 94% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Jong PSV U21's games and 72% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 94% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht finished level at 1-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.34 xG and Dordrecht 1.51 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.15 / defence 1.30 against Dordrecht attack 0.80 / defence 1.60, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 56% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 24%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 62%, Dordrecht 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.16 PPG, Dordrecht 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.