Jong PSV U21 0-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Sportcomplex De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 16 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Den Bosch are 2.00 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 0.95 xG and Den Bosch 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.972 / defence 1.150 | Den Bosch attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.855 / away 1.523. Data: 1 Jong PSV U21 games / 1 Den Bosch games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 22% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Den Bosch 2.13. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 22% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Jong PSV U21 0.95 / Den Bosch 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.972 / def 1.150 | Den Bosch attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.855 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Den Bosch xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Jong PSV U21 0 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 22% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.97) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.85x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
22%
4.58
31%
3.23
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.44
1.49
Den Bosch xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.49 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Den Bosch by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Den Bosch's attacking output running into Jong PSV U21's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 0%.
Defensively: Den Bosch in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Jong PSV U21 or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Den Bosch have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Den Bosch 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 0% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Jong PSV U21's recent games and 0% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out Jong PSV U21 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong PSV U21 0-1 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 0.95 xG and Den Bosch 1.49 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 22% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 47%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 0%, Den Bosch 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Jong PSV U21 managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Den Bosch managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.