Jong PSV U21 2-4 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Monday 31 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Den Bosch are 1.10 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.30 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Jong PSV U21 2W, Den Bosch 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 69% versus Den Bosch 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 75% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.997 / defence 1.577 | Den Bosch attack 0.824 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.294. Data: 68 Jong PSV U21 games / 69 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 36% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 40%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 100% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 36% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.59 / Den Bosch 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.997 / def 1.577 | Den Bosch attack 0.824 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Den Bosch xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 31 March 2025 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 4 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 36% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.00) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.82x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
36%
2.74
23%
4.33
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.27
1.68
Den Bosch xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.68 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 17W 12D 39L from 68 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 32L across 68 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.12 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 8W 7D 19L from 34 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 10W 6D 18L across 34 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.21 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 12D 39L in their last 68 games (0.93 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 16D 32L in their last 68 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.91 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
4
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, Den Bosch have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-1 Den Bosch.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 79%, Den Bosch 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Jong PSV U21 and 53% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Jong PSV U21's games and 38% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 53% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong PSV U21 2-4 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.59 xG and Den Bosch 1.68 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 1.58 against Den Bosch attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 36% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 40%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.93 PPG, Den Bosch 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.