Jong PSV U21 2-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to Sportcomplex De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Monday 6 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Sportcomplex De Herdgang this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 6W 0D 2L from 8 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.80 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 59% versus De Graafschap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 59% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG and De Graafschap 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.984 / defence 1.068 | De Graafschap attack 1.091 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.531. Data: 17 Jong PSV U21 games / 17 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 25% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 52%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 1.92. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 56% | De Graafschap 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 25% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.18 / De Graafschap 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.984 / def 1.068 | De Graafschap attack 1.091 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.78
De Graafschap xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 25% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.98) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.09x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
25%
3.98
23%
4.30
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.96
1.78
De Graafschap xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
4%
23.70
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.78 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 6W 4D 7L from 17 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 5L across 17 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 4W 2D 2L from 8 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Jong PSV U21 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 6W 0D 2L across 8 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.76 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.65 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.75 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: De Graafschap have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
8
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, De Graafschap have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 62%, De Graafschap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Jong PSV U21 and 88% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong PSV U21's games and 62% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 88% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong PSV U21 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong PSV U21 2-3 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG and De Graafschap 1.78 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against De Graafschap attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 25% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 52%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 59%, De Graafschap 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.